호주 외식업 폐업률 최고치 — 카페·레스토랑 위기, 펍은 견조 (2026-02)
Article Info
| 항목 | 내용 |
|---|---|
| 아웃렛 | CreditorWatch |
| 저자 | Michael Pollack |
| 게시일 | 2026-02-18 |
| 언어 | en |
| URL | https://creditorwatch.com.au/blog/cafes-and-restaurants-in-crisis-while-pubs-power-on-insolvencies-trending-up-again |
한국어 요약 (Korean Summary)
- CreditorWatch 2026년 1월 Business Risk Index: 지난 1년간 푸드서비스 사업체 10.4% 폐업 — 전 산업 최고, 경제 평균의 2배.
- 하위 분화: 펍·클럽·바는 자산 기반·현금흐름이 탄탄해 폐업률 ~8%로 상대적 견조. 반면 카페·레스토랑은 초박형 마진.
- 연체 지표: 60일+ 연체 B2B 인보이스 비중이 푸드서비스 12.4%(전국 평균 5.9%) vs 펍·클럽 3.1%.
- 원인: 2022년 이후 최저임금 인상(누적), 임대료 상승, 식자재 물가 +7.5%, 낮은 완충력·부채. 소비 위축(외식 지출 정체).
- 거시: 2025년 12월 인솔번시 1,366건(월간 역대 3위). 향후 1년 높은 수준 유지·소폭 상승 전망(Ivan Colhoun).
Original Content
Article: “Cafés and restaurants in crisis while pubs power on: Insolvencies trending up again” — CreditorWatch, Michael Pollack, 18 February 2026.
Australia’s cafés and restaurants are facing record-high failure rates, with new data showing the food service sector is under significantly more pressure than pubs, clubs and bars. The latest January Business Risk Index from CreditorWatch shows 10.4% of food service businesses closed over the past year, the highest rate of any industry and double the economy-wide average. While pubs, clubs and bars are also closing at above-average rates, they are proving far more resilient, with annual failure rates closer to 8%, supported by stronger cash flows and asset backing.
Hospitality splits in two: the share of B2B invoices overdue by more than 60 days has climbed to 12.4% in food service, compared with a national average of 5.9%. Pubs and clubs have maintained much lower delinquency levels of 3.1%. CreditorWatch CEO Patrick Coghlan: “Asset-backed pubs and clubs are holding firm, but cafés and restaurants are operating on razor-thin margins with very little room for error.”
Cost pressures on cafés/restaurants: rising wages from successive minimum wage increases since 2022; rent pressures as pandemic-era relief ended; input inflation with food prices rising 7.5% over the past year; limited buffers with higher debt and limited credit access. Retail data shows café and restaurant turnover has remained largely flat since early 2023.
National insolvency trends: insolvencies trended lower for much of 2025 following income tax cuts and interest rate reductions, but momentum has shifted, with 1,366 insolvencies recorded in December 2025, the third-highest monthly total on record. Construction and Accommodation and Food Services continue to record the highest absolute numbers of insolvencies. CreditorWatch Chief Economist Ivan Colhoun: “Business conditions are likely to remain challenging, and insolvencies are expected to stay elevated or rise slightly over the year ahead.”